How Canada’s New Immigration Rules Could Affect Workers and Salaries
Imagine graduating from university in Canada, applying for professional jobs, and discovering that employers can support overseas candidates for permanent residency without first demonstrating that no Canadian worker is available. That is one of the major concerns surrounding a federal immigration policy change scheduled to begin on November 3, 2026.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government is changing how certain applicants qualify for points under Canada’s Express Entry immigration system. The policy aims to prioritize people with job offers in designated high-wage occupations, but economists warn that removing an important local recruitment requirement could affect salary growth and employment opportunities.
The debate is particularly significant for young Canadians and professionals entering a competitive job market. The central question is whether the new approach will help employers attract valuable skills or create additional competition for positions that Canadian workers are already seeking.
What Changes on November 3, 2026?
Beginning November 3, employers in 186 occupations will be able to support foreign workers seeking permanent residency without first proving that they could not find a qualified Canadian applicant for the position.
Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab announced the Express Entry changes on October 16, 2026. Under the revised system, eligible candidates can receive up to 100 additional points for a qualifying job offer in a designated high-wage occupation.
Previously, employers generally needed a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) to demonstrate that hiring a foreign worker would not adversely affect the Canadian labour market. Under the new arrangement, qualifying job offers covered by the changes will no longer require that assessment.
The government is placing greater emphasis on occupations classified as high-wage. The relevant threshold is approximately $74,000 in annual median pay, or at least 1.3 times the median wage of Canada’s overall workforce.
Importantly, eligibility depends on the occupation’s classification rather than solely on the individual candidate’s actual salary. This distinction has become a central issue in the discussion about whether the policy will achieve its intended economic benefits.
Why Economists Are Concerned About Wage Growth
Pierre Fortin, an economics professor at the Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), has raised concerns about allowing employers to recruit foreign workers without first demonstrating that Canadian candidates are unavailable.
His concern is that businesses have financial incentives to control payroll expenses. If employers can access overseas applicants more easily, competition for certain positions could place pressure on compensation, particularly where workers have similar qualifications and compete for the same jobs.
The possible consequences extend beyond immediate salary reductions. Mikal Skuterud, an economist at the University of Waterloo, identifies slower earnings growth as a key risk. Workers might continue receiving their current salaries while experiencing smaller raises than they otherwise would have received.
That distinction matters because wages do not need to fall outright for workers to experience financial pressure. If earnings grow more slowly while housing, transportation, and other living expenses increase, employees may find it harder to improve their standard of living.
Young Canadians Face a Challenging Employment Market
The policy arrives while several parts of Canada’s employment market are already experiencing difficulties. According to figures cited by The Hub from Statistics Canada, the youth unemployment rate stands at 13 percent.
Competition is also evident in positions requiring advanced education. During the second quarter of 2026, Statistics Canada recorded 4.9 unemployed people for every vacancy in occupations requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher. Vacancies in these fields were down 5.9 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.
Some occupations included in the high-wage category have also shown limited evidence of widespread shortages. Employment in educational services was down 67,000 from a year earlier, while second-quarter vacancies for software developers and programmers totalled 3,500.
These figures do not establish that foreign recruitment will necessarily displace Canadian workers. However, they illustrate why economists are questioning whether every occupation on the government’s list needs the same immigration incentives.
For recent graduates, the practical concern is straightforward: when employers have more potential applicants to choose from, securing a first professional position may become more difficult if domestic demand is already weak.
Healthcare and Skilled Trades Present a Different Picture
Not every occupation faces the same employment conditions. Canada’s skilled trades and healthcare sectors have stronger evidence of labour shortages, making international recruitment potentially more beneficial in these areas.
Statistics Canada counted 1.7 unemployed people per vacancy in occupations requiring a trade certificate or diploma. Vacancies in trades, transport, and equipment operator occupations increased by 7,100 compared with a year earlier.
Federal projections also identify heavy-duty equipment mechanics and airline pilots as occupations facing a strong risk of shortages through 2033. Industrial electricians, gas fitters, sheet metal workers, and bricklayers are classified as facing a moderate risk.
Healthcare presents an especially clear case for targeted recruitment. Of the 22 healthcare occupations included on the government’s list, 21 are projected to face shortages. For registered nurses, federal projections anticipate 179,800 job openings against 159,500 job seekers over the decade.
These differences suggest that immigration policy may be more effective when it responds to demonstrated workforce needs rather than treating every designated occupation as equally difficult to fill.
Why a High-Wage Job Classification May Not Tell the Whole Story
Parisa Mahboubi, a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute, has explained that research generally finds limited negative effects on Canadian earnings from highly skilled immigration. Skilled newcomers can contribute expertise, improve productivity, and support innovation.
However, a job’s classification as high-wage does not guarantee that every person hired into that occupation will receive a high salary. Actual earnings can vary according to experience, qualifications, location, and the specific position being offered.
Mahboubi has also highlighted the risk of fraudulent or non-genuine job offers. Ottawa removed job-offer points from Express Entry in 2025 amid concerns about the buying and selling of LMIAs. Reintroducing a substantial points advantage for qualifying offers makes the integrity of employer recruitment an important issue to monitor.
Another challenge is determining how foreign workers affect existing employees. As of August 2026, Canada had 1,298,350 work permit holders under the International Mobility Program, which allows eligible categories of workers to obtain permits without an LMIA.
Mahboubi has pointed to gaps in the available evidence about whether LMIA-exempt workers complement Canadian employees or put pressure on wages and job prospects. Better information would help policymakers assess the effects of the revised system more accurately.
What the Changes Could Mean for Canada’s Economy
The broader debate involves more than the number of people entering the country. Policymakers must also consider how immigration affects productivity, business investment, wages, and the distribution of economic opportunities.
Fortin has argued that rapid immigration between 2016 and 2024 contributed to concerns about Canada’s productivity and income inequality. He has also highlighted how investment directed toward housing and accommodating newcomers may not necessarily generate the same productivity gains as investment in business capacity and technology.
At the same time, skilled immigration can help address genuine labour shortages and bring knowledge that strengthens Canadian businesses. The challenge is to ensure that recruitment policies attract workers whose contributions match the country’s economic needs.
If employers use occupational classifications inaccurately to obtain immigration advantages, the system could also become less effective at directing newcomers toward genuine vacancies. Monitoring job offers and enforcing eligibility requirements will therefore be important as the new rules take effect.
What Canadian Workers and Jobseekers Should Do Next
Canadian workers should not assume that the changes automatically mean their salaries will fall or that foreign applicants will replace them. The policy changes how eligible job offers can contribute to Express Entry applications; it does not establish that every employer will recruit abroad or reduce existing employees’ pay.
Jobseekers can take practical steps by checking current vacancies in their occupation, comparing salary ranges, strengthening relevant qualifications, and reviewing their options through official Canadian employment resources. Employers and prospective immigrants should consult Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) for the latest eligibility criteria and implementation details.
Workers considering an employment offer should also review the position’s actual duties, compensation, and employment conditions rather than relying on the occupation’s high-wage classification alone.
The next important milestone is November 3, 2026, when the new Express Entry rules are scheduled to begin. Employment data, wage trends, the number of qualifying offers, and evidence of genuine labour shortages will help show whether the changes improve recruitment or intensify competition in already crowded fields.
For Canadians, the most useful measure of success will be whether the policy helps employers fill positions they genuinely struggle to staff while allowing workers already in the country to pursue better jobs and sustainable wage growth.
